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Ukraine wheat exports to decline on rising prices

As the reports in media go, the key wheat exporters, including Ukraine, mull to reduce their supply volumes in the new season. Ukrainian wheat prices have started rising on high demand on the global market. The matter was discussed on April 9 during an analytical briefing of the PUSK cooperative, created within the VAR.
“In April, we have already exported 541 thousand tonne of wheat. Some of the products that could not be exported in March were to be shipped from Ukraine in April. This month’s exports could reach the export level of 3 million tonne (mt), this will happen due to the March contracts. Importers are ready to wait for wheat deliveries, as demand is growing. The increase in demand is due to the forecasts of a drop in production in the EU, the US and Ukraine, i.e. all key exporters.
During the last season Ukraine exported a lot due to large stocks, but, this year they will not exceed 1 mt, as ports are working. At the same time, the sown areas with wheat are shrinking, and less wheat will be harvested. The first estimates of the export potential of Ukrainian wheat in the new season have already been reduced by 3-4 mt.
Although, the Ukrainian CPT market saw a drop in prices earlier, the market is coming back to normal, with prices returning to previous levels and set to grow. “Our main competitor, Russian wheat, has risen in price by $8-10 per tonne in recent weeks. The price tags for Ukrainian wheat will rise by at least $2-3 per tonne by the henceforth,” the analytical department of PUSK noted.
By the end of the week, the notional prices for wheat on CPT basis will be about $175 per tonne in Danube ports, $170 per tonne in deep-water ports, $198-203 per tonne on DAP Constanta basis. “Demand for wheat is expected to continue to drive the wheat market upward,” the analysts added.