We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry. current time
Global sugar prices under pressure on improved supply outlook
The reliable sources reported that the sugar prices, somewhere in mid-April, remained narrowly mixed, with London sugar falling to a 2-1/2 week low. Sugar prices have been under pressure since when Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2023-24 sugar production from December-March was 8.75 million tonne (mt), above a February estimate from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp for sugar production of 7.5 mt.
Losses in sugar were, however, remained contained on a Bloomberg report that said that India may allow sugar mills to use more sugar to make ethanol, a move that could suggest the government will not ease sugar export curbs anytime soon. The Indian government is considering allowing factories to use an additional 800,000 mt of sugar for ethanol production this year.
The sugar also had bearish carryover pressure from when the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association reported that India’s 2023-24 sugar production from October-March rose up 0.4 percent year-on-year to 30.2 mt as more sugar mills stayed open to crush sugarcane. As of March 31, 322 Indian sugar mills had closed operations, compared with 346 mills closed at the same time last year.
Another bearish factor for sugar in the report from Unica almost a month ago that showed Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of March was 64,000 mt, up 313 percent from last year. Also, Brazilian sugar output so far in the 2023-24 marketing year through mid-March is up 25.8 percent year-on-year to 42.245 mt. Brazil’s sugar mills have pushed up their cane crushing for more sugar and less ethanol. Mills have crushed 48.96 percent of total cane for sugar production this year, up from 45.93 percent last year.
Reduced sugar production in India also, remained a bullish factor for prices. The 2023 (June-September) monsoon rain was 6 percent below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years. In October, India extended restrictions on sugar exports from October 31 until further notice in an attempt to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 mt of sugar during the 2022-23 season to Sep 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 mt in the previous season. India is the second-largest sugar producer in the world.
On the bearish side for sugar, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association on March 13 raised its forecast for India’s sugarcane production in the 2023-24 marketing year (that began on October 1) by up 2.9 percent to 34 mt from January’s forecast of 33.05 mt. Higher sugarcane production likely means higher refined sugar production, depending on how much of that sugarcane is converted into ethanol.
The reduced Thai sugar production was also a reason for bullish sugar prices. Rainfall in Thailand had been below the same period last year, and the current El Nino weather system could continue to depress rainfall in Thailand. Sugar millers in Thailand are reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane this year in at least 13 years. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released in November last, projected that global 2023-24 sugar production would remain higher by 4.7 percent year-on-year to a record 183.461 mt and that global 2023-24 human sugar consumption would increase 1.2 percent year-on-year to a record 178.431 mt. The USDA also forecasted that 2023-24 global sugar ending stocks would fall 13.3 percent year-on-year to a 13-year low of 33.681 mt. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised in February its 2023-24 global sugar deficit estimate to fall 689,000 mt from a November estimate of 335,000 mt.
