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Aug
10

Wheat prices rise as traders look ahead to U.S. crop estimates

Wheat emerged as the stronger performer in Friday’s grain trade, while corn showed little movement and soybean prices slipped. Traders are now turning their attention to the next U.S. crop report, which could influence prices across the grain complex.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, the September soft red winter wheat contract settled at $235.06 a tonne after gaining 1.35%. Kansas City’s September hard red winter wheat finished at $262.35 a tonne, while Minneapolis spring wheat climbed to $249.67 a tonne.

The main focus for wheat traders is the U.S. production update scheduled for August 12. Current market expectations point to total wheat output of 1.525 billion bushels, which would be 11 million bushels below the July projection. Winter wheat production is expected to come in at 981 million bushels, with spring wheat output estimated at 468 million bushels.

Export demand, however, remains a weak spot for U.S. wheat. Sales for the current marketing year have reached 7.277 million tonnes, nearly 29% below last year’s level at the same stage. Export commitments have covered only about 35% of the USDA’s full-year target, compared with 44% last year. France has also trimmed its estimate for soft wheat production by 100,000 tonnes, bringing the forecast to 31.9 million tonnes.

Corn trading was much quieter. The September Chicago contract ended at $172.83 a tonne. Market participants are currently working with an expected U.S. corn yield of 182.4 bushels per acre, or approximately 11.45 tonnes per hectare, ahead of the August crop report.

Fresh export business provided some positive news for corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recorded a private sale of 286,100 tonnes to Mexico. Meanwhile, commitments for old-crop U.S. corn have reached 87.09 million tonnes, representing a 23% increase from a year earlier.

Soybeans faced more pressure. The November Chicago contract declined 0.13% to $432.19 a tonne as large South American supplies continued to weigh on the market. Brazil shipped 13.4 million tonnes of soybeans during July, and August exports are expected to total 9.74 million tonnes.

Demand from China offered some relief. A fresh U.S. sale of 238,000 tonnes of soybeans to China was reported, following purchases of roughly 10 U.S. cargoes by Chinese buyers a day earlier.

European markets also finished the week in positive territory. September milling wheat in Paris gained 1.21% to €223 a tonne, while December wheat reached €232. November corn rose to €248.25 a tonne.

For now, wheat has the strongest market momentum, largely because traders are positioning ahead of the new U.S. production figures. Corn remains steady, while ample soybean supplies continue to limit gains in that market.