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Sep
03

Walnut Prices Hold Steady as California Supplies Tighten

The global walnut market is holding a stable to slightly firm tone, with kernel prices in China, the United States and India supported by tightening old-crop supplies in California and steady demand. While the market is not showing signs of a sharp rally, limited availability is reducing the scope for prices to decline significantly in the near term. California remains a key influence on the international market. Strong shipments during the 2025/26 season have reduced old-crop inventories, leaving limited supplies available as the marketing season approaches its end. The tighter stock position is providing support to walnut kernel prices, even though grower returns remain below longer-term averages. In China, FOB Dalian prices for light quarters and pieces have remained broadly unchanged from the previous week. The stable price trend points to balanced market conditions, with exporters showing limited willingness to offer further discounts amid higher costs. Chinese kernels continue to provide competition for California supplies, but current offers do not indicate aggressive price-cutting.

India is also seeing firm walnut prices. Domestic production remains relatively limited, while consumption continues to hold up. Wholesale and retail prices are above global averages, with demand receiving additional support from the approaching festival season. The combination of limited local output and steady consumption continues to support imports and demand for higher-value kernels. Buying interest from Europe and the Middle East remains steady rather than aggressive. As California inshell availability tightens, buyers are showing greater interest in kernel products, helping maintain support across the market. Weather conditions over the next three days are not expected to create major disruptions in the principal walnut-producing regions. California’s Central Valley is forecast to remain seasonally warm and dry without extreme heat, while major growing areas in China, including Xinjiang and northern provinces, face broadly normal late-summer conditions. No significant storm or frost threat is currently indicated.

In India, walnut orchards in Jammu and Kashmir have passed the key flowering stages. Weather in major consuming centres such as New Delhi is more relevant to logistics than crop development, with no major disruption to walnut trade flows expected over the short term. The market is now moving from the tightening old-crop California phase towards the new-crop season. New-crop trading remains limited, while demand is broadly steady. Recent California shipment figures show that 2025/26 movement has been substantially stronger than the previous season, contributing to the reduction in available old-crop supplies. For the next three days, the overall price outlook remains stable to slightly firm. Tight California stocks, steady Chinese offers and resilient Indian demand are likely to keep the downside limited, although current conditions do not point towards a major price rally. European buyers are expected to remain focused mainly on price differences between origins, with currency movements playing a comparatively smaller role.