We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry. current time
Kazakhstan’s Wheat Crop Set to Fall Sharply on Heat, Drought
Kazakhstan is heading for a much smaller wheat harvest this year as prolonged heat and dry conditions hit several major grain-producing areas. The 2026 crop is now expected to reach only around 13–13.5 million tonnes, down nearly 30% from the 19.3 million tonnes harvested last year.
The drop in production is likely to tighten supplies in the domestic market and push wheat prices higher. Prices could rise by roughly 10% from 2025 levels, offering farmers some relief from the financial impact of lower yields.
However, the expected price increase may be limited by developments in neighbouring Russia. Disruptions to grain exports through the Azov-Black Sea region have left more newly harvested grain on the Russian domestic market. The resulting supply pressure has already pulled wheat prices down, with values declining from around RUB 13,800 per tonne to RUB 13,400 per tonne in a week.
Kazakhstan has responded by imposing restrictions on wheat imports for six months. Some exemptions have been provided to specific processors and poultry producers, but the measure has not completely removed concerns within the market. Traders remain cautious that competitively priced Russian wheat could find its way into Central Asian markets and restrict gains in Kazakh wheat prices.
The quality profile of this year’s crop may provide some support to the market. The hot and dry growing conditions are expected to raise gluten levels in a portion of the wheat, potentially increasing the value of milling-quality grain.
The same weather pattern, however, could create another problem. If a larger share of the crop meets higher milling specifications, availability of cheaper, lower-grade wheat could become tighter. This could put additional pressure on feed manufacturers that depend on lower-quality grain.
Kazakhstan’s wheat market is therefore likely to face a mixed situation in 2026: significantly lower output and potentially better quality on one side, while competition from cheaper Russian supplies could prevent domestic prices from rising as much as farmers expect.
