Japan’s rice production expected to decline in 2026-27
As reported by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, rice production in Japan for the marketing year (MY) 2026-27 is projected to reach 7.38 million tonne (mt) reflecting a 1.5 percent decrease compared to the 2025-26 period. This decline pertains to the staple crop that has been losing popularity among farmers.
The FAS said that the decline reflects the ongoing trend of aging farmers exiting the industry as well as an anticipated shift away from rice to other crops such as wheat, barley and corn. To control the rice crisis in Japan, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture released 210,000 tonne of rice stock. The Japanese government decided that the release of the stockpiled rice would be used to address supply shortages due to production declines.
Japan’s rice consumption is seen reaching 8.05 mt, a 1.9 percent increase from the previous year’s estimate, driven by an anticipated increase in feed consumption. Rice remains a staple food in Japan; however table rice consumption steadily has declined over the past six decades due to lower per capita intake and a shrinking and aging population.
While rice consumption continues to account for the majority of rice demand in Japan, rice used for feed has become increasingly important in balancing overall supply and demand. Japan’s rice imports are forecast to decline 11 percent to 750,000 tonne in 2025-26, and further 7 percent to 700,000 in 2026-27 as private imports are projected to weaken, the FAS said.
Japanese official sources stated that in the efforts to mitigate inflation, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, has implemented several measures during her initial term, accompanied by a campaign promising to address the escalating inflation. Nevertheless, there is a divergence of opinion among experts regarding some of the decisions made concerning rice. Indeed, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has not proven effective in stabilizing rice prices in Japan.
Experts emphasize the necessity for a well-defined strategy to stabilize rice prices in the country. It is important to note that rice constitutes Japan’s staple food, and the nation has historically maintained self-sufficiency in rice production. However, in the past year, the rice shortage in Japan has gained international attention. Currently, the soaring rice prices in Japan are emerging as a significant concern.