We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry. current time
Global Rice Outlook Turns Cautious Amid Prolonged El Niño Risk
The global rice market could face a significant supply challenge as El Niño threatens major producing regions, prompting the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) to join hands with S&P Global Energy for a detailed assessment of the emerging risks.
According to IREF, worldwide rice output could fall by around 9 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, which runs from October to September. The expected decline comes at a time when farmers are already dealing with higher production costs and uncertainty created by geopolitical tensions.
The weather outlook has added to concerns. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put the likelihood of El Niño continuing into early 2027 at 97%. A prolonged spell could affect almost every major rice-growing region, with disruptions potentially extending beyond a single crop season.
The federation said the combination of adverse weather and rising prices of fertiliser, fuel and other farm inputs could influence farmers’ planting decisions, particularly across Asia. S&P Global expects global rice production to fall to around 536.4 million tonnes, highlighting the potential scale of the supply pressure.
Despite the expected production decline, rice exports may remain relatively steady in the near term because of substantial stocks carried over from the 2025-26 season. The bigger concern is on the demand side. Global rice imports are projected to increase by nearly 4 million tonnes to 59.7 million tonnes, as importing nations look to build supplies ahead of possible weather-related disruptions.
The situation could therefore reshape international rice trade. Countries that traditionally depend on predictable supplies may move earlier to secure shipments, potentially changing established trade routes and putting additional pressure on prices.
The joint assessment by IREF and S&P Global Energy will examine how El Niño, alongside higher logistics and input costs linked to continuing tensions in West Asia, could alter the global rice market.
The findings are scheduled to be presented at the Bharat International Rice Conference in New Delhi from October 24. The three-day event will examine vulnerable producing regions, potential shifts in import demand and the markets that could gain or lose from changing trade patterns.
The study will also assess whether current rice prices fully reflect the risks ahead and provide an outlook for the market over the next 52 weeks. With weather uncertainty rising, the findings could offer important signals for exporters, importers, farmers and policymakers preparing for another potentially volatile year.
