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Bangladesh Turns to India for Wheat as Rice Prices Drive Roti Demand

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting global wheat flows and lifting prices, Bangladesh is shifting its focus to India, where lower costs and shorter transit times are making Indian wheat more attractive. Dhaka has resumed wheat purchases from India after a four-year hiatus.

Bangladesh has restarted wheat purchases from India after a four-year gap, as supply disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict drive wheat flour prices higher. Flour prices have climbed as much as 17% in the past month, while record-high domestic rice prices are encouraging consumers to turn to wheat-based foods, further boosting demand for the grain.

Bangladesh is turning to India once again to secure wheat supplies, with traders in the South Asian country booking more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat at prices ranging from $306 to $326 a tonne, according to Bloomberg. The shipments are expected to reach Bangladesh by rail, marking Dhaka’s first significant purchases of Indian wheat in more than four years.

Although rice remains the backbone of Bangladesh’s food basket, wheat has become the country’s second-largest cereal staple. Domestic production, however, falls far short of consumption needs. Bangladesh harvests around one million tonnes of wheat a year, while demand requires the country to bring in an additional seven million tonnes through imports, according to Dhaka-based The Daily Star.

India has traditionally played a key role in filling that supply gap, at times accounting for more than half of Bangladesh’s wheat imports. Trade between the two neighbours was particularly strong in 2020-21, when India shipped 1,157,399.35 tonnes of wheat to Bangladesh, with the consignments valued at about $299.4 million, The Daily Star reported.

That trade flow changed dramatically in 2022 after India introduced restrictions on wheat exports amid concerns over domestic supplies and food security. The move effectively curtailed one of Bangladesh’s most important nearby sources of wheat.

The latest bookings signal a renewed opening for Indian wheat in the Bangladeshi market, where proximity, rail connectivity and competitive pricing can offer importers an alternative to supplies sourced from more distant origins.

Why Did Bangladesh Stop Importing Wheat From India?

India was once a major supplier of wheat to Bangladesh, but the trade relationship changed sharply in 2022 following disruptions in the global grain market.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that year disrupted wheat supplies from two major producers and exporters, creating uncertainty in international markets. India briefly emerged as an important alternative supplier as global buyers looked for replacement sources.

However, India was also facing pressure at home. Wheat production in the 2021-22 crop year declined by around 2.5% to 106.84 million tonnes, compared with 109.59 million tonnes a year earlier, with an intense heatwave contributing to the lower harvest.

The tighter domestic supply, coupled with stronger demand, pushed Indian wheat prices up by an estimated 15%-20%. To protect domestic availability and contain price pressures, the Indian government imposed restrictions on wheat exports in 2022. Exemptions were made for shipments covered by previously issued letters of credit and certain supplies cleared to meet the food-security needs of other countries.

The restrictions effectively reduced India’s ability to supply Bangladesh, forcing Dhaka to diversify its sources. Bangladesh subsequently turned to exporters including Argentina, Canada, Russia and Ukraine. Around 40% of its wheat imports were sourced from the Black Sea region, making the country increasingly dependent on supplies from markets outside India.

AMID BLACK SEA DISRUPTIONS, INDIAN WHEAT STEPS IN TO MEET REGIONAL DEMAND

The wheat trade landscape has shifted sharply in 2026. In August, India ended its four-year restriction on wheat exports after a record harvest of 120.65 million tonnes in the 2025–26 crop year left the domestic market well supplied. The surplus also weighed on returns for Indian wheat growers, adding pressure for the government to reopen overseas markets.

The timing has coincided with fresh disruptions to wheat shipments from Russia and Ukraine, where attacks on vessels and grain infrastructure along the Black Sea have affected exports. Bloomberg reported that Ukraine’s wheat shipments plunged from 4.48 million tonnes in April this year to just 1.13 million tonnes in August.

The disruption is particularly significant for import-dependent markets such as Bangladesh, which traditionally sources a large share of its wheat from the Black Sea region. The Daily Star, citing US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections, reported last year that Bangladesh’s wheat imports could reach 6.7 million tonnes in 2026, a 7.5% increase from the previous year. The USDA linked the expected rise to stronger domestic wheat consumption as elevated rice prices encouraged consumers to turn increasingly towards wheat-based foods.

That pressure has continued into 2026. The Daily Star reported in July that rice prices had increased by Tk 3 to Tk 5 per kg across varieties, even though the country’s main paddy harvest had taken place just two months earlier in May.

Bangladesh has turned to suppliers including Australia, the US and Canada to compensate for tighter Black Sea availability. However, those alternatives come at a significantly higher cost. Australian wheat that once traded below $380 a tonne is now costing Bangladeshi buyers around $480 a tonne, Bloomberg reported, citing Taslim Shahriar, senior deputy general manager at Meghna Group of Industries.

Higher input costs have also filtered through to consumers. Data from Bangladesh’s state-run Trading Corporation showed that refined wheat flour prices in Dhaka climbed 17% in a single month.

Indian wheat has therefore emerged as a more economical and geographically convenient option. India’s proximity to Bangladesh allows shipments to reach the market faster while reducing freight expenses compared with supplies sourced from distant exporters. Bloomberg reported that Bangladeshi traders have booked Indian wheat at approximately $305-$326 a tonne, with purchases since the August reopening reaching at least 200,000 tonnes.

Demand for Indian wheat is also emerging elsewhere in the region. Sri Lankan buyers have recently purchased around 60,000 tonnes from India at roughly $325 a tonne before shipping, according to Bloomberg.

The broader trade outlook points to a significant expansion in India’s wheat exports. A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report forecasts Indian wheat shipments to more than quadruple to 2 million tonnes in 2026–27, supported by abundant domestic supplies and continued disruption in the Black Sea. The UAE and Indonesia are among the other markets expected to emerge as buyers of Indian wheat.