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Aug
14

Turmeric Prices Slide as Better Rains Ease Crop Concerns

Turmeric prices came under heavy pressure, falling 4.29% to ₹19,968 as improved monsoon rains across Maharashtra, Telangana and northern Karnataka reduced fears of weather-related crop damage.

The return of rainfall has improved soil moisture and replenished reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, providing better water availability during the crop’s vegetative phase. In North Karnataka, farmers have also completed re-sowing after rainfall conditions improved. While the immediate threat to production has eased, the market remains focused on the behaviour of the monsoon in the weeks ahead, particularly amid concerns over the possible influence of El Niño.

Turmeric cultivation is expected to expand this season. Acreage could rise 16.05% from last year and remain above the five-year average of around 1.88 lakh hectares. Higher market prices have encouraged farmers to allocate more land to the crop during the ongoing Kharif season.

Tight Stocks Offer Some Support

Despite improving crop prospects, the supply situation remains relatively constrained. Carry-forward inventories are estimated at about 15 lakh bags, significantly below the more than 20 lakh bags available at the end of the previous season. Increased farmer selling during the main harvesting period has improved short-term supplies, but buyers continue to adopt a cautious approach.

Export markets are also facing quality-related challenges. European Union residue regulations have resulted in some non-IPM-compliant consignments being rejected, putting pressure on prices of commercial-grade turmeric. At the same time, demand for turmeric produced under Integrated Pest Management practices is providing some support to the premium segment.

India’s turmeric exports slipped marginally in May, falling 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes from 19,205 tonnes a year earlier. Shipments during April-May, however, remained broadly steady at 33,999 tonnes.

Some overseas markets continued to show strong demand. Exports to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy increased, with shipments to China during April-May jumping dramatically to 2,021 tonnes, a rise of 4,631% year-on-year.

In the physical market at Nizamabad, turmeric prices also weakened, declining 2.13% to ₹19,922.40.

Technical Picture Turns Bearish

The futures market is showing signs of renewed selling. Open interest surged 40.98% to 24,960 contracts while prices dropped by ₹896, suggesting stronger participation on the bearish side.

The immediate support zone is around ₹19,506. A decisive break below this level could push prices towards ₹19,042. On the other hand, ₹20,694 remains an important hurdle. A sustained move above it could pave the way for a recovery towards ₹21,418.

For now, better rainfall has taken some heat out of the supply fears, but weather, acreage and export demand will continue to determine the direction of the turmeric market.