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May
11

Canada’s dry peas exports likely to increase in 2026-27

The Statistics Canada (STC) has estimated in its latest report that for 2026-27, Canada’s dry peas seeded area is likely to be 12 percent lower than the previous year at 1.25 million hectares (Mha) due to lower returns relative to other crops. However, with average yields, production is forecast to decrease by 25 percent to below 3.0 mt, with total supply falling to 4.3 mt.

In 2026-27, dry peas exports are expected to be higher at 2.7 mt on strong demand from China. The carry out stocks are expected to fall sharply to below 1.0 mt. The average price is expected to rise from 2025-26 due to expectations for smaller domestic carry-out stocks, as indicated by the Statistics.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’S) Prospective Plantings report showed that US area seeded to dry peas for 2026-27 is forecast at 1.17 million acres (Mac) (0.475 Mha), marginally above 2025-26. This is largely due to an expected decrease in the North Dakota area offset by a rise in the Montana area.

As estimated by the STC, for 2025-26, exports are forecast to increase to 2.5 mt, with India and Bangladesh being the two top markets for Canadian dry peas. Carry out stocks are forecast to increase sharply despite expectations for higher exports, largely due to a 1.1 mt rise in supply. The average price is expected to fall significantly from 2024-25, with lower prices for all dry pea types.

Exports of dry peas between August and February, on a monthly basis, have been lower than the five year average for every month, except August and February, which were higher. The fall in demand in other months can be attributed to instability in the dry pea market caused by import duties by China. There has been increased export demand to Bangladesh when compared to the five-year average, as stated by the STC.