We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry.
We focus on grains and food industry. current time
US wheat stocks estimate decline in 2026-27
In its initial survey-based production forecast report, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has estimated for US wheat ending stocks in the 2026-27 season to be at 762 million bushels, representing an 18 percent decrease from the 2025-26 figures. Total supplies are expected to decrease by 11 percent compared to the previous year, as reduced production has more than compensated for the increase in beginning stocks and imports.
For the 2026-27 marketing year, US wheat production is anticipated to be 1,561 million bushels, which is a 21 percent reduction from the prior year and 14 percent lower than the recent five-year average. Overall, winter wheat production is projected to decline by 25 percent to 1,048 million bushels due to a lower yield and a reduced harvested-to-planted ratio.
The report stated that in addition to the decrease in acreage, yields this year have been adversely affected by a significant and widespread drought, particularly impacting Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. With a reduction in acreage for durum and other spring wheat as well, US all-wheat production is expected to be at its lowest level since the 1972-73 marketing year. HRW production for the upcoming marketing year is projected at 515 million bushels, a 36 percent decrease from the previous year, attributed to a smaller yield and reduced harvested area. Soft Red Winter (SRW) production is forecast down 15 percent to 301 million bushels, with smaller yield and area harvested. White Winter production is forecast at 232 million bushels, down 5 percent from last year. In 2026-27, durum and other spring wheat production are collectively estimated at 514 million bushels, down 12 percent from the previous year.
In 2025-26, all-wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels to 910 million. Considering the pace of export sales and shipments, Hard Red Spring (HRS) is raised 5 million bushels to 235 million and SRW is up 5 million bushels to 125 million. US wheat exports for 2026-27 are forecast down 135 million bushels year to year to 775 million, with exports constrained by the small domestic crop, higher US prices and abundant competitor supplies.
US all-wheat imports for 2025-26 are unchanged at 125 million. U.S. wheat imports for June 2025 through March 2026 totaled 104 million bushels, accounting for 83 percent of the marketing year projection. Imports for these 10 months are down 19 percent from the same period last year. Based on the by-class pace of imports, HRS is lowered 3 million bushels to 62 million, while Durum is raised 2 million bushels to 46 million and White is up 1 million bushels to 7 million. US all-wheat imports for 2026-27 are forecast 15 million bushels higher at 140 million bushels based on tighter domestic supplies.
