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US almond prices at 20-year low may fall further

The reliable sources in the trade, reported that the US almond was seen trading at $1.43 to $1.45 in the first part of the month past, before falling to $1.40 per pound (lb) within a week. The activity made US almond trade analysts to mark the prices fallen as 20-year lows. This fall was attributed to the concerns over large ending stocks weighed on markets ahead of harvest. The Mintec Benchmark Prices for standard 5 percent almonds FAS US were assessed at $1.40 per lb on 3rd August 2023, down 7 cents per lb on the week and the lowest price for the Benchmark since January 2003.
In fact, the store clearing activity by some of the sellers, who still possessed large volumes of standard 5 percent almond, and were looking to free up space ahead of harvest, could be made responsible for the falling prices. Despite the low prices, the demand for these US almonds was limited because of the holidays in Europe and ample stocks with the traders there.
“We sold some standards at $1.40 per lb earlier in the week, but now we are sitting on offers at the same level, and we can’t find a buyer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices drop further unless buyers start engaging with the market,” a European trader was quoted saying.
Keeping in mind, the market participants expected supply to continue increasing, and finally to outweigh the demand. The traders expected the ending stocks close to the 800 million pound mark USDA Objective Almond Measurement of 2.50 billion pounds was placing total supply over 3 billion pounds for the 2023-24 season.
However, Market participants surveyed by Mintec, immediately after, were expecting a year-on-year increase in July shipments ahead of the July position report.
Estimates for July almond exports were reported in the range of 170-200 million pounds, with most market participants were maintaining figures of 175-190 million pounds. If realised, a July shipment figure of 180 million pounds would mean an increase of 6 percent y-o-y, 7 percent below the three-year average (2020-2022) for the month.
“We saw a large increase in activity over the last two weeks in July, which helped lift our export figures. This appears to be the case for most we spoke to; they are up year on year, with a slow start to July and a strong finish. Luckily August seems to be keeping up the momentum; low prices are good for something, I guess,” a US handler said to Mintec.