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Dec
20

French wheat production sees a notable recovery

As reported by trade sources, in 2025, France is likely to produce 33.4 million tonne (mt) of wheat, marking a notable recovery from the disappointing 25.6 mt harvested in 2024, bringing the output closer to the 5-year average. Although the area sown was reduced, yields achieved an impressive 7.44 tonne per hectare, 7 percent higher than the 5-year average, due to favorable spring weather that facilitated optimal flowering following a wet winter that had initially sparked concerns of another poor harvest.
While domestic availability has surged and quality remains high, the real challenge lies in exports amid a global oversupply. France traditionally exports around half its wheat crop, with a significant share destined for non-EU countries. However, key markets have shrunk, for instance, Algeria has not purchased French wheat since 2023 due to strained diplomatic relations, and China, once a major buyer, has sharply cut grain imports. As a result, French wheat must fight for competitiveness against abundant global supplies, putting strong downward pressure on prices
They project that French wheat exports for the marketing year 2025–26 will amount to only 7.7 mt, with Morocco anticipated at 2.5 mt and sub-Saharan Africa at 2.4 mt, being the main destinations. Early-season exports are progressing well, having reached 3.4 mt to non-EU countries by mid-November, which constitutes 44 percent of the annual target. Nevertheless, competition is becoming fiercer. For instance, Russian exports are increasing, and Argentina is expected to inundate the market in the latter half of the season with record yields and slightly reduced protein content, which could pose a challenge to French milling wheat with 11–11.5 percent protein, particularly in Morocco, France’s leading partner.
Despite a strong early export performance, ending stocks are anticipated to rise to 4 mt by the season’s conclusion, marking the highest level in over 2 decades. Steady domestic consumption and limited export growth will not be sufficient to absorb the surplus, fundamentally altering France’s wheat balance sheet and underscoring the critical need for effective flow management in the upcoming months.