Cardamom export likely to see a substantial opportunity
As per traders and experts, a setback in Guatemala’s cardamom production has renewed the optimism of Indian exporters regarding increased overseas shipments, particularly to Gulf markets in anticipation of the upcoming Ramadan season. The scenario presents India with a substantial opportunity to export a greater volume, with industry sources indicating a record shipment range of 12,000 to 14,000 tonne.
Some traders based in Idukki stated that Guatemala production is expected to be around 17,000 tonne this season against 14,000 tonne. In normal years, the usual production is around 40,000 to 50,000 tonne. As replanting has not been undertaken in the wake of drought last year, the production in 2026 is likely to be around 22,000 tonne.
Trade experts also expressed the same view and said that the crop failure in Guatemala is likely fundamentally to alter the global supply-demand dynamic, and the situation will be a unique strategic opportunity for India to regain its position in the global market.
Since, for many years, Indian cardamom, known for its oil-rich and premium quality, faced challenges in competing against the substantial volume of less expensive, lower-grade Guatemalan exports in Gulf markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait. With a decline in Guatemala’s production, Indian exporters may experience a significant increase in inquiries in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the picking season in many growing regions in Idukki is on and there will be sporadic pickings till March 2026. For producers, he said 2025 was a better year after the El Niño drought in 2024. With La Niña conditions, the sector is expecting good spring showers by March 2026.
Presently, India is set to become the main supplier for the peak Ramadan and Eid season, during which the demand for cardamom used in Gahwa coffee reaches its peak. They mentioned that the exporting between 12,000 to 14,000 tonne would represent a considerable increase from the typical 6,000–8,000 tonne.
They further said that however, the significant drop in Guatemala production has started redirecting global buyers towards Indian auctions. But, the fluctuations in auction prices are hindering exporters from entering into substantial and long-term agreements. Concurrently, significant foreign exchange volatility is rendering the establishment of export prices almost unfeasible. Abrupt declines in exchange rates are diminishing the profit margins of smaller exporters. He stated that any additional increase in prices will inevitably reduce export volumes.