Canola crop sown in winter before the outbreak of hostilities
According to trade sources, Ukraine is the world’s third largest exporter of canola, after Canada and Australia. The war has threatened the country’s 2022 crop, despite it being sown in the winter before the outbreak of hostilities.Much of the agricultural news surrounding the war in Ukraine has revolved around wheat and corn, but another important crop may also be affected.The war has jeopardized the country’s 2022 crop, despite it being sown the winter before the outbreak of hostilities.
According to markets farm analyst Bruce Burnett, “You have to be widely optimistic to say that Ukraine is going to produce a crop that is close to last year’s crop and it’s probably going to be down by about a third from normal, I would say, just given the circumstances, and it could be down by a lot more.”This forecast is in line with one from APK-Information, an agricultural consulting firm based out of Ukraine.
It is calling for a 28 percent reduction in production of winter wheat, rye and barley, based on a “current map of military activity” in the country. According to Apk-Information estimates that only 13.6 million acres of the 18.8 million acres earmarked for those crops will be cut.Canola was not included in that estimate, but in a separate story, APK-Information said Ukrainian farmers planted 3.5 million acres of oilseed, the biggest crop in 12 years.It was also noted that almost half of the crop is located in areas of military activity, so a large part of it could be destroyed by the ravages of war.
According to Burnett, it is likely that some crops did not receive the usual dose of fertilizer in the February-March period. He is also concerned about the potential for farmers to apply pesticides seasonally, which is an important crop input for canola growers. And then there are questions about the ports of Ukraine.
According to the report, the Russian Navy fired missiles and artillery in the Odessa region, which is one of the country’s most important ports for the shipping of grain.
“It remains to be seen how the port’s infrastructure will be when the war ends. This could severely hamper Ukraine’s export potential for the new crop canola. This was in most part due to the country’s tradition of selling the old crop.” Already shipped,” Burnett said.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ukraine is expected to export 2.7 million tonnes of canola in 2021-22. UkrAgroConsult estimates that 89 per cent of the total has been exported till February.About 1.6 million tons were shipped to the European Union, a market that over the years has become an important customer for Canada.
According to the United Kingdom’s Board for Agriculture and Horticulture Development, Ukraine has accounted for 44 percent of the EU’s canola imports so far this year. It garnered market share from Canada, which had a low harvest.
Vegetable oil supplies are projected to be at decades-low levels by the end of the 2021-22 crop year, so any major disruption to Ukraine’s sunflower and rapeseed production in 2022 is likely to raise or lower prices, Burnett said .
According to a story in the Financial Express, prices of edible oil in India, the world’s largest importer of the product, have soared by 25 to 40 percent in the past month alone, with Burnett giving Canadian producers nearly 2022 output on today’s new crop.
Though he acknowledged that drought is still a major concern for the prairie, so there are some risks associated with that strategy.