Canadian corn crop expects lower
As per the Statistics Canada (STC), for 2025-26, Canadian farmers have harvested approximately 14.9 million tonne (mt) of corn, which is about 0.6 mt lower than the previous estimate.
The main reason in falling of corn crop is to be drier late-season conditions in Eastern Canada, which reduced yields and outputs in the region, particularly in Ontario and Québec. However, corn output in the western province of Manitoba is above earlier expectations thanks to improved yields.
Nationwide, average yield is below the earlier estimate and down from the previous season’s record high, but remains in the upper range. So far, the 2025 production is 3 percent lower than in 2024, with the 1 percent decrease in Ontario and the 18 percent decrease in Québec more than offsetting the 22 percent increase in Manitoba. Compared to the previous five-year average, production in 2025 is slightly higher.
By province, Ontario accounts for almost 65 percent of the national production, followed by Québec (20 percent) and Manitoba (15 percent), with the remaining from other provinces. Corn supply is projected at 18.1 mt, reflecting lower year-on-year due to lower carry-in stocks, production, and imports.
Domestic feed consumption and exports are expected to decline significantly year-on-year. The carry-out stocks are projected at 1.6 mt, little changed year-on-year, but well below the five-year average of 2.0 mt. The 2025-26 Chatham average corn price is projected at $220 per tonne, down $5 per tonne from 2024-25, mainly due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.