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Dec
20

Argentina’s soybean exports set to hit record

According to the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Argentina’s soybean exports in 2025-26 (October – September) are forecast at 8.3 million tonne (mt), the highest in 6 years, driven in part by several adjustments to export taxes in the past year.
USDA experts stated the reason on the most significant development, was the temporary removal of export taxes on various agricultural products in September, which lifted the 26 percent tax on soybean and the 24.5 percent taxes on soybean meal and soybean oil until the end of October, or until export sales declarations for all impacted products hit a $7 billion limit. This limit was achieved in just few days, leading to over 3.0 mt of additional soybean export sales recorded for Argentina’s 2024-25 local year (April 2025 – March 2026). The majority of these sales were noted for delivery between October and December 2025.
In 2025-26, Exports of soybean meal exports from Argentina are forecast at 29.0 mt, while soybean oil exports are forecast at 6.2 mt. Export volumes for both products are expected to be higher than most years on record but less than 2024-25. This is a consequence of lower expected soybean production, down 2.6 mt year-on-year to 48.5 mt, but also fewer soybeans available for domestic crushing from October to March before supplies are replenished by the 2025-26 harvest. For October 1, 2025, soybean stocks are estimated at 23.1 mt, the second lowest at this point in over 10 years behind drought-impacted 2023.
Domestic soybean availability through March is further limited by the unseasonably strong soybean exports expected due to the export tax elimination. The exports in October remained a robust 1.7 mt, and an additional 2.8 mt are expected through March. Imports will provide an important supply boost, with 3.5 mt expected from October, 2025 to March, 2025 at 7.7 mt.
Argentina typically sources its highest volumes from Paraguay and Brazil following their harvests, which commence in February. Consequently, a decrease in crush is anticipated in the upcoming months.