Kharif Crop Prices Show Resilience Ahead of New Arrivals
With the arrival of fresh Kharif crops in mandis expected to begin within the next 10 days, market prices remain largely supportive for farmers across major producing states. Most crops covered under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) regime are currently trading close to or above the MSP for the 2026-27 season. However, Bajra and Moong remain weak spots, with average prices about 31 per cent and 13 per cent below their respective MSPs.
According to Agmarknet data for September 4, nine of the 14 Kharif crops for which MSPs have been declared were selling at or above their prescribed support prices. Maize, Jowar, Tur, Urad and Soyabean were among the crops showing relatively stronger price positions.
Paddy, the most important Kharif crop from the procurement perspective, was averaging around ₹1,965 per quintal in Uttar Pradesh. Government procurement is expected to provide further support to paddy prices once purchases begin across different states. Procurement currently accounts for a significant share of production, helping prevent a sharp decline in mandi rates during the arrival season.
Soyabean prices have also remained stronger than last year, despite substantial imports of edible oil. Groundnut prices are expected to receive support as well, particularly with Gujarat, the country’s leading producing state, anticipating a favourable crop. Maize, which is currently trading above MSP, could face downward pressure when fresh supplies reach the market. Increased availability and competition from alternative feed ingredients such as soymeal and DDGS could weigh on prices.
Concerns over possible production losses linked to El Niño are also influencing market sentiment. The impact is particularly relevant for crops such as paddy, soybean and other rain-sensitive commodities. While some price movements may already reflect these supply concerns, volatility remains a possibility during the arrival period.
Overall, market conditions suggest that prices of most major Kharif crops could remain around their MSP levels, particularly for FAQ-grade produce. Moong may continue to face pressure because government agencies are releasing stocks into the market.
The acreage data also points to some reduction in crop availability. As of September 4, maize sowing stood at around 91 lakh hectares, down 3 per cent from the previous year. Paddy acreage declined 4 per cent to 421.82 lakh hectares, while soybean and groundnut areas were each around one lakh hectare lower than last year.