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Jun
01

Barley acreage in Canada expects to increase

According to the first area report by Statistics Canada (STC), Canadian farmers plan to increase barley acreage for the upcoming growing season. Nationwide, barley area to be seeded in 2026 is projected at 2,607 thousand hectares (Kha), up 5 percent year-on-year, reflecting stronger interest in the crop across much of Western Canada, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan, despite a slight decline in Manitoba.

Nevertheless, the planned 2026 area is 9 percent below the previous five-year average. By province, Alberta remains the largest barley-growing region, accounting for almost 55 percent of total barley acreage in 2026. Saskatchewan follows with over 35 percent, Manitoba with 5 percent, and the remainder spread across other provinces.

STC stated that barley production in the country is projected at 8.3 million tonne (mt) a noticeable decrease from last season, due to a return to average yields that would be significantly lower than the record highs achieved in the previous season, despite expectations for a larger area. This season, total supply is projected at 9.8 mt, down significantly year-on-year, primarily due to the lower production only partly offset by slightly higher carry-in stocks and largely unchanged imports.

The forecast for total domestic use is to remain relatively steady. Barley exports are expected to decline, driven primarily by reduced available supplies and increased competition from key exporting countries. Carry-out stocks are projected to fall sharply to 0.7 mt, largely as a result of the smaller anticipated crop. The 2026-27 Lethbridge average price is projected at $285 per tonne, up $5 per tonne year-on-year.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley supply is estimated at about 11.1 mt, up sharply year-on-year, supported by both larger carry-in stocks and significantly stronger production, despite a decline in imports. Supply for 2025-26 also remains significantly above the five-year average. The abundant supplies are expected to encourage both domestic feed consumption and exports. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.3 mt, up from the previous season’s 1.2 mt and well above the five-year average of 0.9 mt.

STC’s monthly trade data shows that exports of raw barley grain during the first seven months of the crop year (August–February) reached nearly 2.1 mt, indicating an increase of 60 percent year-on-year and 26 percent higher than the five-year average, with China accounting for 59 percent of total shipments, followed by Japan, Saudi Arabia, the US, and Colombia.

On global level, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand estimates forecast global barley production for 2025-26 at 155 mt, up notably year-on-year and above the five-year average. This rise is due to increased output across key exporting origins, particularly the EU, Russia, Australia, and Canada, despite Ukraine harvesting one of its smallest crops on record. Trade is expected to be more active this season.

Global barley consumption is expected to get stronger too, driven by stronger feed use and, to a lesser extent, increased food, seed, and industrial use. Ending stocks are projected at over 20 mt, a substantial increase compared to the previous season, with stocks expected to be abundant in most major exporting countries.