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Sep
30

World grain production estimates to remain steady: IGC

In its latest report, International Grains Council (IGC) has kept its forecast for world grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019-20 unchanged from its previous forecast of 2,159 million tonnes. If it happens true, it would be the second largest production in history. However, in the wake of unfavourable weather in Australia, the estimate of grains output for the country has been lowered by 3 million tonnes month-on-month, mostly on downgrades for wheat and sorghum but, following an upward revision of 2 million tonnes for wheat, the EU total grains crop has been predicted at a four-year high. With the forecast for consumption unchanged month-on-month, the 3 million tonnes increase in the projection for world carryover stocks is expected to reach at 601 million tonnes, reflects larger than previously estimated opening inventories, especially in the USA mainly for maize and Canada for wheat. Figures for soybean supply and demand in 2018-19 have been kept broadly unchanged from previous estimate, with heavy accumulation in the US set to result in record carryovers, rising by 10 million tonnes year-on-year, to 54 million tonnes. Similarly, global rice fundamentals in 2018-19 have been slightly amended from August, with production, consumption and stocks seen at all-time peaks. Due to a marginal month-on-month reduction, world output in 2019-20 is predicted steady year-on-year, at a high of 500 million tonnes.