Ukraine’s winter wheat sowing estimate up by 9 pc
As per trade sources, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has increased its projection for winter wheat sowing for the 2026 harvest by 9 percent. Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy stated that this decision creates opportunities to enhance exports, which are crucial for bolstering the economy and funding defense against Russian aggression, as reported by Reuters.
According to the revised estimates, at least 5.2 million hectares will be cultivated with winter wheat, in contrast to the earlier forecast of 4.78 million hectares, which is approximately the same as this year’s figures. These estimates do not account for spring wheat, which typically covers around 200 thousand hectares.
Vysotskiy pointed out that this expansion is occurring at the expense of corn and sunflower crops, which suffered significant damage due to drought this year. “I believe producers will learn from this year’s circumstances. In the southern regions, farmers may choose not to plant sunflowers and corn, instead opting for winter wheat,” he elaborated.
The report shows that this year’s drought nearly devastated Ukraine’s sunflower harvest and drastically diminished corn yields. In several regions, farmers are now reevaluating their crop strategies and shifting towards more resilient varieties.
Notably, winter wheat is regarded as more dependable, as it can utilize moisture that accumulates in the soil during autumn, winter, and spring. Unlike many other crops, it is less reliant on spring rainfall, rendering it more resilient to climate risks.
According to official data, Ukraine harvested 22.5 million tonne (mt) of wheat in 2025. During the 2024-25 season (July–June), 15.7 mt were exported. Although the forecast for the 2026 harvest has yet to be disclosed, the increase in the area under cultivation provides grounds for anticipating an enhancement in export potential.
As of September 25, farmers had already sown 672 thousand hectares of winter wheat. Concurrently, the Economy Ministry has lowered its forecast for winter barley sowing to 550 thousand hectares from 576 thousand hectares, without providing reasons for the adjustment.