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SEA lowered mustard production estimates slightly for 2023-24

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), the apex trade body, has recently revised its production estimate for rapeseed mustard slightly lowered by 0.51 million tonne (mt). The SEA initially estimated the rapeseed-mustard crop at 12.09 mt for the 2023-24 season. However, following a survey conducted by RMSI Cropalytics in May this year, the estimate stands reduced to 11.58 mt. This revision highlights a decrease from the March estimate and points to several challenges faced during the growing season.
This adjustment is significant for exporters, as it reflects changes in the agricultural terrain influenced by weather conditions. Understanding these shifts is crucial for strategic planning and market positioning.
B.V. Mehta, the Executive Director of SEA, explained that in the major producing states such as Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh the adverse weather conditions due to El Nino remained active. As a result, the severe heat waves and a significant reduction in soil moisture during the crop’s maturity stage resulted in lower yields.
Accordingly to the latest survey in May by SEA, the detailed state-wise breakdown of production estimates has shown the estimate decreased from 4.613 mt in March to 4.534 mt for Rajasthan and dropped from 2.003 mt to 1.788 mt for Uttar Pradesh. Similarly for Madhya Pradesh, the production estimate fell from 1.758 mt to 1.603 mt, whereas, the estimate was revised down from 1.226 mt to 1.168 mt for Haryana.
However, for states like West Bengal, Gujarat, Assam, and Chhattisgarh, there were minor changes in estimates. The combined estimate for these eight states was revised to 10.578 mt in May from 11.086 mt in March.
The survey recorded the increase in production partly due to increased acreage. The estimates based on the remote sensing, indicated that rapeseed-mustard seed acreage recorded a growth of 5 percent, from 9.58 million hectare (mh) in 2022-23 to 10.06 mh in 2023-24. Rajasthan leads the sown acreage, with sowing 3.8 mh, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 1.776 mh and Madhya Pradesh at 1.398 mh.
For rapeseed-mustard production, the revised estimates present an agricultural scenario clearly influenced by weather patterns and increased acreage. For exporters, these changes underline the importance of staying informed about production trends and adjusting strategies accordingly. Despite adverse conditions the slight increase in total production significantly underlines the resilience of the sector and the potential for continued growth in exports.