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Feb
12

Global rice production to reach a record for 2023-24

The latest report by the US Department of Agriculture ( USDA), presenting the global rice look, said that the Global rice production in 2023-24 is set at a record 513.5 million tonne (mt) (milled basis), down 4.5 mt from last month’s forecast but still fractionally above a year earlier. This month, production forecasts for 2023-24 were lowered for Bangladesh, China, and the United States, with China accounting for the bulk of the reduction.
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, Colombia, Egypt, the European Union, Ghana, Guyana, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, the United States, Urugay, and Vietnam account for the bulk of the expected increase in global rice production in 2023-24. Pakistan and the United States are projected to achieve the largest production gains in 2023-24. Both countries harvested abnormally small crops in 2022-23 due to the adverse weather.
The rice production in 2023-24 is projected to decline almost 3.8 mt in India to 132.0 mt, though this is still the second highest projected harvest on record. China’s 2023-24 production is projected to decline 1.3 mt from a year earlier to 144.6 mt due to smaller harvested area. Thailand’s 2023-24 rice production is projected to decline 0.9 mt 20.0 mt due to a delayed start to the rainy season. Indonesia’s 2023-24 rice production is projected to decline 500,000 tonne to 33.5 mt, also due to a delayed start to the rainy season. Rice production is projected to continue to decline in Japan and South Korea due to the declining and aging populations. Weaker crops are also projected in 2023-24 for Bangladesh, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Laos, Mali, Nepal, Nigeria, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.
The total global rice supplies in 2023-24 are projected at 689.3 mt, down 3.5 mt from the previous forecast and 6.9 mt below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of declining global rice supplies. The downward supply revision is the result of a 4.5 mt decrease in the 2023-24 global production forecast more than offsetting a 1.1 mt increase in the 2023-24 carry-in estimate. China accounts for most of the reduction in the 2023-24 global production forecast. Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia account for most of the increase in the 2023-24 carry-in estimate.
The year-on-year decline in global rice supplies in 2023-24 is the result of a 7.5 mt decrease in the 2023-24 carry-in to 175.8 mt, more than offsetting a 583,000 tonne projected increase in global production. China accounts for the bulk of the decline in global carry-in in 2023-24, with China’s 2023-24 carry-in dropping 6.4 mt to 106.6 mt.
Global domestic and residual use in 2023-24 is projected at a record 522.1 mt, down 2.95 mt from the previous forecast but up almost 1.7 mt from a year earlier, exceeding production by 8.6 mt. Domestic and residual use forecasts are lowered this month for Bangladesh, China, and Madagascar, but raised for Algeria, Paraguay, and Saudi Arabia. China’s 2023-24 domestic and residual use forecast is lowered almost 2 mt to 149.9 mt as the use of rice for feed has declined. China’s imports of low-priced broken from India have virtually ceased due to India’s ban on exports of broken announced in September 2022, and the decline of prices for corn and other feed grains.
Global ending stocks in 2023-24 are projected at 167.25 mt, 513,000 tonne below the previous forecast and 8.6 mt smaller than a year earlier and the smallest in 6 years. China accounts for the bulk of the downward revision in 2023-24 global ending stocks, lowered 2.5 mt to 102.0 mt, down 4.6 mt from a year earlier. Ending stocks forecasts were also lowered this month for Bangladesh, Burma, Iraq, and Paraguay, but raised for India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and the United States.
China and India account for the bulk of the year-to-year decline in global ending stocks. China’s 2023-24 ending stocks are projected to decline 4.6 mt to 102.0 mt, and India’s are projected to decrease 2.0 mt to 33.0 mt. Despite these expected declines in stocks, China and India together still account for nearly 81 percent of global ending stocks. Ending stocks are also expected to decline in 2023-24 in Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. These expected declines in ending stocks in 2023-24 are partially offset by projections for rising stocks for Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and the United States. The 2023-24 global ending stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 32.0 percent, down from 33.8 percent a year earlier and the smallest since 2016-17.