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Apr
03

Global cotton prices feared low for 2025

BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, is reported to have stated that the outlook for the global cotton market is bearish on hopes of higher production in key regions and fears of a drop in consumption.
“We believe that positive outlooks for harvests in large producing markets for 2024-25 coupled with downbeat expectations for consumption will maintain a cap on prices,” it said.
During a time of extreme uncertainty, the cotton farmers in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are currently facing a daunting task: how to make critical planting decisions, the International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) said in a statement.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), while pointing to the ICAC’s World Textile Demand Report 2024, which projected cotton’s market share in global fibre consumption has dropped below 25 percent, said that this limits the potential growth for cotton product imports despite record consumer demand for apparel and home textiles.
“Competition with MMF (man-made fibres) is especially challenging with respect to Chinese MMF exports. US cotton product imports from China have nearly halved since peaking in 2010, while MMF product imports have risen more than 30 per cent during the same period,” it said.
As for the 2024-25 season, the USDA raised the cotton production estimate by 500,000 bales (226.8 kg) to 121 million bales, due to a 750,000-bale increase in China more than offsetting reductions for Pakistan and Argentina.
“With the latest data from the US CFTC Commitment of Traders Report indicating that the net position held on February 11, 2025, was a short position of 60,481 contracts,” it said, adding “it was the largest net short position since June 2024.”
According to the USDA, since mid-February, cotton futures on the ICE have been ruling around 66 cents per pound with prices now reflecting the May 2025 contract. With additional Chinese tariffs on US cotton, cotton futures reached their lowest level since August 2020 at 63 cents per pound earlier this month.
“However, prices have recovered due in part to strong export sales for US cotton,” it said.
The cotton futures though, had fallen more than 30 cents compared with last year, yet speculators continued selling cotton futures contracts with the prediction that prices will fall even further, the USDA observed.